When the Auburn Tigers take the field against the Mercer Bears on Saturday, November 22, 2025, at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama, it won’t just be another non-conference game. It’s a lifeline. With a 4-6 record, Auburn needs to win both this game and next week’s Iron Bowl against Alabama just to reach bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Mercer — a 9-1 FCS powerhouse — isn’t just a tune-up. They’re a team that could expose flaws, if Auburn doesn’t play with urgency.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Spread Suggests
Dimers.com’s 10,000-simulation model gives Auburn a 95% chance to win, with a projected score of 40-14. That’s not surprising — Auburn is an FBS team playing an FCS opponent. But the real story isn’t the predicted blowout. It’s the context. Auburn’s season has been a mess: inconsistent offense, defensive lapses, and a quarterback carousel. Now, with starter Ashton Daniels sitting out to preserve his redshirt, true freshman Deuce Knight is stepping in. The pressure? Massive. And the clock? Ticking toward the Iron Bowl.
Merely winning won’t be enough. The Tigers need to look like a team that can compete with Alabama. That means execution. Tempo. Ball security. Analysts on YouTube’s The Friday Forecast kept saying the same thing: "If Auburn plays like they did at Vanderbilt, they could score more than 40." That game — a 38-17 win over Vanderbilt — was the only time this season Auburn looked like a cohesive unit. If they replicate that, the Mercer game becomes a statement. If not? It’s another ugly win that raises more questions than answers.
Who’s Actually Playing? The Key Players
For Mercer, the engine is quarterback Braden Atkinson. He’s the FCS leader in passing yards (359.78 per game), and he’s thrown for over 300 yards in every game but one. His chemistry with his receivers and his ability to stretch the field make Mercer’s offense dangerous — especially against an Auburn defense that’s given up 28+ points in four of its last six games. Don’t sleep on punter John McConnell, either. His hang time and directional kicks have forced opponents into long drives and field position battles.
On the other side, Auburn’s defense, led by coordinator DJ Durkin, is the only unit that’s shown consistent improvement. Analysts predict he’ll have Mercer’s offense "shut down," with at least one pick-six or fumble recovery. Durkin’s unit has been better in the second half of games — a trend that could be critical against Mercer’s high-tempo attack.
And then there’s Deuce Knight. The 18-year-old freshman has thrown just 17 passes all season. But he’s mobile, calm under pressure, and has shown flashes of poise in practice. The coaching staff’s game plan? Keep it simple: quick slants, screens, and let the playmakers — like RB Jalen White and WR Ja’Kobi Lane — do the rest. "If they stick to the game plan, get your ball to the playmakers, then Deuce will end up being fine," said one analyst on the YouTube preview.
The Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Story
The betting lines tell one story: Auburn -27.5, over/under 51.5. Action Network shows 66% of bets on Auburn, but only 34% of the money. That’s a classic "sharp vs. public" split. Some bettors think Mercer’s offense — ranked top-10 in FCS scoring — will cover. Others think Auburn’s talent gap is too wide to ignore.
But here’s what the stats miss: motivation. Auburn hasn’t won two straight games since September. Mercer, meanwhile, has lost only once — to FBS team Georgia State, by a field goal. They’re hungry. They’ve beaten FCS top-5 teams. They’ve played in front of 15,000+ fans in Macon. This isn’t a scrimmage. It’s a test.
And the numbers on Auburn’s recent trends? They’re troubling. The Tigers are 2-3 against the spread in their last five games. The total has gone under in four of those five. That’s not the profile of a team about to drop 40+ on anyone. So why are the odds so lopsided? Because Auburn’s talent is still better. But talent doesn’t win games. Execution does.
What’s Next? The Iron Bowl Looms
Win this game, and Auburn gets a shot at Alabama — and a shot at relevance. Lose, and the season ends with a whimper, and questions about the program’s direction will grow louder. For Mercer, even a loss can be a moral victory. A competitive game against an SEC team could elevate their national profile, especially if they score 20+ points.
And let’s not forget the timing. This is Auburn’s final tune-up before the Iron Bowl. If Deuce Knight looks shaky, the coaching staff may have to reconsider Daniels’ return. If the defense forces three turnovers? That’s a blueprint for beating Alabama. If the offense stalls early? Then the Iron Bowl might be a disaster waiting to happen.
Why Mercer Could Surprise
It’s easy to dismiss Mercer as a tune-up. But remember: FCS teams have beaten FBS teams before. Eastern Washington beat Washington State. North Dakota State beat Iowa. Even in 2023, South Dakota State nearly took down Kansas State. Mercer isn’t just good — they’re disciplined, balanced, and coached by Bobby Lamb, a veteran with 25 years of FCS success. They’ve played in close games. They’ve won on the road. They’ve handled pressure.
If Auburn’s offensive line struggles to protect Knight — and they’ve allowed 14 sacks in the last four games — Mercer’s front seven, led by linebacker Malik Jenkins (11.5 TFLs this season), could force mistakes. A pick-six early? A fumble returned for a touchdown? Suddenly, the game isn’t 40-14. It’s 27-21. And everything changes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Auburn playing Mercer in Week 13?
Auburn scheduled Mercer as a non-conference opponent to pad their win total before the Iron Bowl. With a 4-6 record, the Tigers need two wins to become bowl eligible, and Mercer — despite being 9-1 — is seen as a guaranteed win. The game also gives Auburn’s young players, like freshman QB Deuce Knight, valuable reps before the season’s biggest challenge.
How does Deuce Knight’s start affect Auburn’s chances?
Knight’s inexperience is a risk, but his mobility and poise in practice suggest he can manage the game. If Auburn sticks to a short-passing, ball-control offense — like they did against Vanderbilt — he can minimize mistakes. But if they try to force deep throws against Mercer’s aggressive secondary, turnovers could cost them. His performance will determine whether Auburn looks ready for Alabama.
Is Mercer really a threat to cover the 27.5-point spread?
It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Mercer’s offense is elite for FCS, averaging 42 points per game. If they score 20+ early and Auburn’s offense stalls, the spread could get close. But Auburn’s defense has shown flashes of dominance, and Mercer hasn’t faced an SEC-caliber defense. A 24-17 game would be shocking — but a 35-21 game is more realistic.
What’s at stake for Mercer beyond this game?
Even a loss could boost Mercer’s national profile. A competitive showing against an SEC team in front of 80,000 fans could help their recruiting and media exposure. Plus, if they score 20+ points, they’ll finish the season with a top-10 FCS offense — a rare feat for a mid-major. Their 9-1 record already makes them one of the most successful FCS teams this year.
Why are the betting odds so extreme if Mercer is so good?
The odds reflect the FBS-FCS divide. Auburn has 20+ scholarship players Mercer doesn’t. Auburn’s depth, speed, and facilities are on another level. Even though Mercer is the best FCS team Auburn’s faced, the talent gap is still enormous. The market is pricing in that reality — not Mercer’s record, but the structural imbalance in college football.
What’s the most likely final score?
Most analysts, including Dimers.com and College Football News, project Auburn between 35-44 points. Mercer’s likely between 13-17. The most common prediction is Auburn 41, Mercer 13 — a score that reflects Auburn’s dominance but gives Mercer enough offensive firepower to avoid a complete shutout. That’s the sweet spot: convincing win, but not embarrassing.
